India faces much more immediate and perilous threats than Australia. The foreign ministers of India, Japan, Australia and the US, The Quad, met in October last year. It faces a nuclear armed hostile neighbour, Pakistan, that has close ties with China. It has a long history of remaining non-aligned. But there are those who have questioned America's resolve and in recent years - particularly under former Prime Minister Abe - there has been a push for Japan to reform its pacifist constitution and strengthen its military posture.Īnd what of India? It clashed with China last year along their disputed border, with casualties on both sides. Of course, Japan is closely aligned to the US. Would it risk its interests to defend Australia? Japan has avoided the types of trade bans China has applied to Australia. Tokyo has so far successfully (more successfully than Australia) managed its relationship with China, its biggest trading partner - despite historic enmity and ongoing territorial disputes.
Yet questions remain, particularly about India and Japan. The Quad has been widely praised as an example of a resurgent democratic alliance in Asia. The so-called Quad grouping - Australia, India, Japan and US - is stepping up its cooperation to try to contain or thwart China's ambitions and increasing aggressiveness. Prime Minister Scott Morrison has characterised this moment as one "that is poorer, that is more dangerous and that is more disorderly". It's a reflection of an increasingly hostile outlook. ( AP: Dean Lewins)Īustralia has updated its defence strategic outlook boosting military spending by $270 billion over the next decade. Scott Morrison joined the inaugural Quad leaders meeting earlier this month. We are paying a price with a deteriorating relationship with China and our exporters are suffering. Gone is the idea that we don't have to choose. The author of the book Destined for War, Allison says it could become a nuclear war.Īustralia is in the crosshairs of this new great power rivalry: on one side the US, our key strategic ally, and on the other our biggest trading partner, China. Harvard University military historian Graham Allison says any conflict would "get worse before it gets worse", meaning it will escalate to drag in countries throughout the Indo-Pacific, perhaps even globally. Any conflict would 'get worse before it gets worse' As the Chinese say: two tigers cannot live on the same mountain. Xi cannot back down and the US cannot be made to look weak lest it relinquish its regional dominance. President Xi has committed himself to reuniting the island with the China Mainland by force if necessary. Those core interests are the disputed islands of the South China Sea - now claimed and militarised by China - and Taiwan. The editorial cautioned America to stay out of China's "core interests". Read moreĪmerica and China have already fought a trade war they are waging war in cyberspace and there are red lines that could trigger a full-blown confrontation.Ĭhina's Communist Party mouthpiece Global Times last year warned the US not to "play with fire". Scott Morrison has sent a message to China that Australia will not be America's "deputy sheriff" and Canberra won't be making decisions based on a choice between Washington and Beijing, writes Stan Grant.